The upcoming election in the US in November has a few interesting markets.

As it stands the outright betting has Biden at 8/13 and Trump at 7/4. Please god do not let these american numbskulls vote in this morally bankrupt shadow of a human being again.

The most interesting bet though is the Republican Nomination where Mike Pence is priced at 16/1 and Nikki Haley at 50/1

There must be a real possibility with Trump trailing in the polls by around 10% to Biden who is not a particularly strong candidate, other than he is not Trump, that he is not the eventual Republican candidate. Pence would not be popular with rank and file Republicans and even less so with the US electorate whereas Haley might be.

At a 50/1 long shot this is perhaps not the worst wager in the world.

I'll not get into politics as it seems your knowledge of it may be only what the mainstream media reports. I say that with no disrespect. I've followed US and British politics alot the past 3 years.

Trump will win regardless of what people's thoughts are about him. Unless you want a £1 bet on an outside candidate the money would be better spent on a different bet. 

The election is gearing up to be a messy one with the possibility of both sides shouting fraud on the result for varying reason. 

I'd skip this area of betting. 

As it clearly contentious, I'll not delve any further into the politics as it seems we may be on a different wavelength as is so often the way with politics.

The art of real gambling is however to extract odds where you feel that there is true value against the odds setter over the long term. Put simply, does the reader of my post consider that if there were 50 elections such as this that Nikki Haley would win more than once.

You may have a different perspective in that you may think it is 1000/1 or even so unlikely as to be impossible. The real artform of gambling is the ability to seek out these edges where they exist and where possible to recognise and disregard personal bias and leave sentiment at the door. I outlined my rationale to benefit the reader who is perfectly entitled to disregard my rationale as flawed if they wish. Indeed I think you probably did.

I could have just posted Nikki Haley at 50/1 to get the Republican nomination and most folks would just scratch their head and think "what on earth is he on about"

Given your response, and please believe me I have no intention in sparking a political debate at all,  You must think there is value in betting on Trump to win at 7/4? That is just the flipside to my original post as you believe that the odds have been influenced unduly by media coverage and this may offer a value opportunity.

I see your perspective, I really do. Let's look at it in the terms of horse racing:

The odds on the field are made up of many factors but you will always have those odds determined by reasonable combinations of form, jockey, distance, ground type and so on to give you your favourites and outsiders. Do favourites always win? No. Do 50/1 outsiders have their day or something that could not have have been chosen happen? Yes. So the same could be said for politics. 

I'll cover Democrats first. It has long been suspected that Biden has dementia and would not be fit to be the president. He has made a lot of gaffs in interviews and as of recent has not been giving any because of this. His stances for the primaries that by the time it came to this keep flipping to what he thinks will be popular and he's now even taken up some of Bernie's socialist stances hoping to secure that area of voting. The Dems dicked about so much before the primaries that they git rid of their good contenders leaving only Biden. Bernie voters won't go for Biden as they don't like him leaving them not voting or voting Trump out of spite. 

Republicans - Nikki at no point has been a strong candidate to run against Trump and has barely been mentioned over the past couple of years. People barely know her. The Republican party are fairly solidified and Trump has support of over 90% of his party so they don't want to see another Republican challenge strong. 

Pence is too late to challenge and I think if he was to seriously contend would do so in 2024. 

Trump, regardless of views, has delivered on most of his promises and had improved the American economy before the virus. More so, he is quietly turning independents and former Dem voters to his side due to the Dems continued pandering to far left ideologies and inaction. Point in case the riots in Den controlled states. Americans are sick of this and secretly planning to vote Trump, although due to persecution or fear of cancel culture can not openly say this. However, if you check through comment sections on YouTube this is very much the case.

The polls reported by the media will always have Biden in front. However, other less biased polls show different. Can any poll be trusted? Nearly all media is left leaning. 

7/4 odds are no good for me. I prefer larger odds with better return. 

Anything can happen but based on what I listen to, read and seek out.....and I try to stay with centrist sources....i wouldn't even consider Nikki or Mike an edge.