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« Back to General Discussion 26/07/2020 at 23:48 0 0 #6713 Icon showing author of the current post: pokersmasher pokersmasher
Posts: 701 Top Contributor

Any member who had joined all five of the casinos shown on the giveaway page, excluding the Gamblers Den Giveaway, would have over a  40% chance of getting a prize. This will reduce as the number of entries goes up but not by that much.

With the average prize being £333 that is equity of over £130 for each member or over £26 for each casino joined. Pretty decent chance of getting a prize eh!

And because the Casino Planet givaway is still going ahead it's actually even better for the members.

Good luck everybody.

All the world's a stage and most of us are desperately unrehearsed.
27/07/2020 at 10:14 0 0 #6716 Icon showing author of the current post: CraigSlots CraigSlots
Posts: 709 Wanker

Awesome stats, never thought of it like this 🙃

27/07/2020 at 12:22 0 0 #6717 Icon showing author of the current post: pokersmasher pokersmasher
Posts: 701 Top Contributor

I have a gambler's menatlity for sure.

Slots are not like this - it's all luck and over the long term you'd expect to lose. Anyone who plays slots and thinks otherwise needs their head examined. I play slots for entertainment and the minute I deposit I consider the money gone- any return is just a nice wee bonus.

Good gambling is about seeking edges such as playing poker against opponents who make a lot of basic errors, arbitrage or simply outthinking  or getting   the better of the odds setters. There is equity in all gambling propositions although it is invarably negative i.e. a bookmakers edge by balancing a book in their favour or the thirty seventh number on the roulette wheel but here and there are opportunities. 

This has just become automatic to me to look at propositions in this way.


All the world's a stage and most of us are desperately unrehearsed.
27/07/2020 at 14:05 0 0 #6718 Icon showing author of the current post: pokersmasher pokersmasher
Posts: 701 Top Contributor

I have just noticed that my sums were wrong though as it is actually a16% chance not 40%

To work it you have to look at each individual draw and calculate the chance of not winning. So in this instance

88 entries

odds of not winning would be 87/88 multiplied by 86/87 multiplied by 85/86 = 96.6% therefore odds of winning would be 3.4%

Do the same for all the draws and multiply the odds on not winning together to get around 84% based upon existing entry levels  so the chance of winning would be around 16%

The equity is therefore 16% of £333 or £53 or around a tenner per entry

All the world's a stage and most of us are desperately unrehearsed.
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